There is, of course, a link with the demise of children’s dental health. Dentsply is a leading supplier of products for the dental sector and may well benefit from this structural and societal problem.
Alzheimers/Dementia: so far there is very little evidence that any of the claims by any of the drug companies are convincing, especially the beta-amyloid hypothesis. This seems a case of a companies using the media to agitate for their drugs to be adopted despite low efficacy.
Cancer: over the past seven years new autoimmune treatments have improved cancer care and reduced side-effects. Merck’s Keytruda continues to extend its range of use in combination therapies.
The technology is available for individuals to have their DNA sequenced and for drugs to be designed for each individual, but perhaps this is where public health budgets have to draw a line. It may simply be too pricey.
Heart disease and stroke: the effectiveness of care in this area is all about the availability of hospital scanners and how long it takes to get the patient to an operating theatre. Some capital will be invested in ambulances and scanners to improve these factors as reduced after-care costs make this efficient.
Over the past 20 years, the widespread adoption of statins for arteriosclerosis is an example of how new drugs can allow leaps forward in healthcare while reducing overall costs.
Hepatitis C: again a nice tale of how improved drugs (Marivet from Abbvie) and earlier diagnosis have significantly reduced prevalence.
COPD/Bronchitis: this rising diagnosis is perhaps the best area for drug companies to try to improve existing treatments. Despite lower levels of smoking, there is still a high growth diagnosis.
Mental health: this is the area of the NHS budget where demand for care is growing the most rapidly. Since the pandemic, both economic inactivity levels and mental health diagnoses are rising sharply, especially stress and ADHD.
Part of the treatment is trying to get people back into society, requiring a large increase in therapists and talking cures. However, medication is core to the process for many, especially ADHD drugs and supervised courses of anti-depressants.
Methylphenidate or Ritalin has been off-patent for 10 years. Novartis is a major manufacturer in this area and has new products in the pipeline.
New anti-depressants such as Gepirone (Bristol Myers) or Zuranolone (Biogen and Sage Pharma) could both excite investors given the size of the market, willingness of insurance to fund and paucity of current drugs.
